StoneX Group

StoneX has grown its book value at roughly 30% a year for more than two decades while consistently earning a 15% or better return on equity. Revenue jumped 33% last year, and management's pay is tied directly to hitting that return target, so they are aligned with shareholders.

When markets get chaotic, StoneX makes more money. Wild swings in commodities, currencies, and interest rates push clients to trade and hedge more, widening the spreads StoneX earns. With geopolitical tension and a global resource race heating up, that tailwind looks set to continue.

StoneX grows largely by buying other companies, and it just closed its biggest deal ever, the roughly 1 billion dollar purchase of futures broker R.J. O'Brien. If it cannot integrate that business smoothly and capture the promised 100 million dollars in synergies, growth and returns could disappoint.

The flip side of the volatility tailwind: if markets turn quiet and interest rates fall fast, trading activity drops and StoneX earns less interest on client cash. The business carries a lot of fixed costs, so a revenue dip can hit profits harder than you would expect.