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Alcoa Corporation logo

Alcoa Corporation

AA
$45.26
-28%since Benson's first pick

Market price data through July 31, 2026.

Performance

Aug 2021Jul 2026

Benson's first pick
$17$45$73$101Aug 2021Oct 2022Jan 2024May 2025Jul 2026Benson picked · $63.93
Model signal
Buy
What Benson's model currently says about this stock.
Benson rating
3.3 / 5
Benson's overall conviction in this stock right now.
Risk
High risk
How bumpy the ride tends to be with this stock.

Track record

How this pick has done since Benson first called it.

Benson Return
-28%
How much this stock is up since Benson first picked it — measured from the price at the time of that first pick, not from today.
First pick price
~$63
Roughly what one share cost when Benson first picked this stock. This is the starting line for the Benson Return.
Tracking since
May 2026
The month this stock first became a Benson pick.
Tracking duration
2 months
How long Benson has been tracking this pick.

About Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa is one of the largest aluminum producers in the world. They mine bauxite, refine it into alumina, and smelt it into aluminum, the metal behind cars, cans, airplanes, and power lines. If it's lightweight, strong, and metal, Alcoa probably had a hand in making it possible.

The case for and against

Both sides of the story, in plain English.

Bull case
  • Record Quarter

    Alcoa just posted its biggest revenue quarter ever at 4 billion dollars, up 24 percent from the prior quarter. Profit came in at 407 million dollars, more than double the 164 million from a year ago, and adjusted EBITDA jumped 51 percent to 901 million dollars. Free cash flow hit 422 million dollars in three months alone.

  • Getting Bigger

    Alcoa agreed to buy South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for about 4.1 billion dollars, making it an even bigger pure play on aluminum. They also restarted smelters in Spain, Norway, and Australia, pushing aluminum production up 5 percent to 636,000 metric tons, and set year to date production records at four smelters.

Bear case
  • Refinery Trouble

    A key refinery in Australia hit problems, worsened by a cyclone knocking out gas supply. Alumina production fell 6 percent to 2.2 million metric tons, and Alcoa cut its full year alumina forecast to between 9.5 and 9.6 million metric tons. Costs went up right when they needed the opposite.

  • Price Roller Coaster

    Aluminum is a commodity, so Alcoa lives and dies by prices it doesn't control. This quarter's 901 million dollar EBITDA was driven mostly by favorable aluminum prices, and that same leverage works in reverse when prices drop. Tariffs on imported aluminum and higher fuel costs from Middle East conflict also took a bite.

How to read this page

This automated research summary uses Financial Modeling Prep market data through 2026-07-31. Model signals, scores, and risk labels can change and may be incomplete or wrong.

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