Intel

The most recent quarter beat expectations for the sixth time in a row, with revenue of $13.58 billion against a guide of under $13 billion. Gross margin landed at 41%, far above the company's own forecast, helped by tight supply and higher prices. These were real numbers arriving ahead of plan, not hope.

The AI build out is shifting from training to everyday use, and that shift runs on the kind of processors Intel makes. The data center and AI group grew 22% from a year ago to $5.1 billion, with demand still outrunning supply. Intel also signed multi year supply deals including one with Google, and its custom chip business is now running above $1 billion a year after more than doubling.

Intel's foundry business, the heart of the long term bet, lost $2.4 billion in a single quarter while bringing in only $174 million from outside customers. On a full year basis revenue is down about 0.5%, and profit margins are still negative near -6%. This turnaround is real but early, and the factory side is years from paying off.

The stock has run extremely hard, climbing more than 400% over the past year, and it now trades at a very rich price versus current earnings. The shares are volatile, with a beta above 2, so swings of 15 or 20% in a single week are normal. A lot of good news is already baked in, which means any stumble in execution could hit the stock hard.