Intuitive Machines

The order book went from 213 million dollars at the end of 2025 to 1.05 billion dollars in just one quarter, a nearly five-fold jump. That includes a slice of a 6.24 billion dollar US Space Force surveillance contract and a 180 million dollar NASA payload mission. Two-thirds of 2026 revenue is already locked in by signed contracts.

Q1 2026 was their best quarter ever with 186.7 million dollars in revenue, roughly three times what they did a year earlier. They also hit positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time, at 2.7 million dollars. Management is guiding to 900 million to 1 billion dollars in revenue for the full year, which would be a roughly five-fold increase over last year.

On a GAAP basis the company is still deeply unprofitable, with a 39 million dollar operating loss in Q1. Cash dropped from 582 million dollars at the end of 2025 to 272 million dollars by the end of February after they closed an 800 million dollar acquisition. If margins don't expand fast they may need to raise money again and dilute shareholders.

Going from 210 million dollars in 2025 revenue to nearly a billion in 2026 requires flawless execution on every major contract. The stock already trades at a high multiple of sales and any slip in the schedule could trigger a sharp correction. There's also a real risk that capital rotates out of smaller space names if SpaceX goes public this year.