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Vistra

VST
$137.09
-34%since Benson's first pick

Market price data through August 28, 2026.

Performance

Aug 2021Aug 2026

Benson's first pick
$1$78$156$234Aug 2021Nov 2022Feb 2024May 2025Aug 2026Benson picked · $214.06
Model signal
Buy
What Benson's model currently says about this stock.
Benson rating
3.6 / 5
Benson's overall conviction in this stock right now.
Risk
Medium risk
How bumpy the ride tends to be with this stock.

Track record

How this pick has done since Benson first called it.

Benson Return
-34%
How much this stock is up since Benson first picked it — measured from the price at the time of that first pick, not from today.
First pick price
~$208
Roughly what one share cost when Benson first picked this stock. This is the starting line for the Benson Return.
Tracking since
August 2025
The month this stock first became a Benson pick.
Tracking duration
12 months
How long Benson has been tracking this pick.

About Vistra

Vistra is one of the biggest independent power companies in America. It owns roughly 44 gigawatts of power plants running on natural gas, nuclear, coal, and solar, and it sells electricity directly to about 5 million homes and businesses. Think of it as owning both the factory that makes the electricity and the store that sells it, so it earns money on both ends.

The case for and against

Both sides of the story, in plain English.

Bull case
  • Powering The AI Boom

    Artificial intelligence data centers need enormous amounts of round the clock electricity, and Vistra already owns the plants to supply it. The company signed long term deals to sell about 3,800 megawatts of nuclear power to Amazon Web Services and Meta, which turns unpredictable market pricing into steady contracted income. Adjusted earnings climbed more than 30 percent year over year last quarter to 1.77 billion dollars.

  • A Real Cash Machine

    Vistra produced 4.07 billion dollars of operating cash flow last year and guides to as much as 4.7 billion dollars of free cash flow this year. Management has used that money to buy back close to 30 percent of the company's shares, which means each remaining share owns a bigger slice. It is also buying Cogentrix, a fleet of about 5,500 megawatts of gas plants, expected to add to cash flow starting in 2027.

Bear case
  • Sales Are Shrinking

    Even as profits climbed, revenue fell about 5 percent year over year last quarter to 4.02 billion dollars, the lowest in five quarters. Costs went the other direction, with operating expenses up more than 16 percent in the quarter and over 35 percent across the last two years. If the new power plants do not bring in enough new revenue to cover that, the profit growth gets much harder.

  • A Bumpy Ride

    The stock has fallen roughly 30 percent over the past year even while the business improved, so this one requires patience. Vistra sells power at market prices, so profits swing with electricity and natural gas costs, and accounting rules on its hedges can move reported earnings by hundreds of millions of dollars in a single quarter. The shares also trade near 15 times book value, which leaves little room for disappointment.

How to read this page

This automated research summary uses Financial Modeling Prep market data through 2026-08-28. Model signals, scores, and risk labels can change and may be incomplete or wrong.

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